Sun and Earthquakes
2018
Introduction
The sun is our only source in the solar system that is giving light and energy to planet Earth. The nuclear fusion mechanism inside the core provides energy to the sun. The mass ejection, energetic particle from the sun due to a solar activity cause severe space weather effect. Any complex region sunspots can emit an intensive M or X class solar flares, fast and wide CMEs. The sunspot cyclic variation is related to climate changes in the Earth. It is also accepted that the Galactic Cosmic Ray variation is affecting the Earth climate. The Geomagnetic storm is a kind of activity is used to understand the intensity of interaction between ICMEs or CIR fast solar wind with Earth magnetosphere. Earthquake is a Geological measurement activity happens in the Tectonic plates. There is no direct evidence that Earthquake activity is a space weather activity. Present study attempt to find the relation between Sun and Earthquakes.
Space weather
It is a kind of effect that is due to solar activities like Sunspot cycle, Solar Energetic Particles, Ground Level Enhancements, solar Radio Bursts, solar wind and they are affecting Earth’s communication, space craft, electricity and rainfall etc. The largest sunspot Carrington event in 1859 is the severe space weather activity on the Earth. The severe storm event in 1989, Halloween storm events in 2003 and May 2024 storm events are important space weather events after Carrington event.
Earthquake
The volcano eruptions, Earthquakes, Tsunamis, avalanche are the major geological events that is responsible for large amount of causalities and economical damages. The events are called disaster events. The events like Great Valdivia quakes in 1960, Indian Ocean quakes in 2004, Japan earthquakes in 2011, Turkey-Syria quakes in 2023 are the most painful events in Human history. Still no useful and high accuracy model is available to predict Earthquakes. The United States Geological Survey suggests that the Earthquake prediction should contain the magnitude, occurrence time and location parameters and it also suggests that it is not possible by any method to predict them.
Challenges in Prediction of Earthquakes
By studying the historical earthquake activities, the earthquakes will occur at any place, at any time and at any magnitude. The quakes are occurring in lands, oceans in all the regions of the Earth. Recently, scientists have found ice quakes in Earth polar regions. Some scientists have found quakes in the Mars planet and Solar quake in the Sun. Some people suggests that dolphins, bats, lake fishes, dogs, rats and cats can predict Earthquakes. Some ancient astronomers suggest that the star movements are related to major Earthquakes. Ancient Indian mathematician Varahamitra suggested that moon and Earth positions are important for the Earthquake and he suggested that two full moon in a same month will create a large Earthquake.
“The only way to understand the cause of earthquakes is by monitoring astronomical activities, particularly the Sun.”
Solar Modelling of Earthquake
According to the model, Earthquakes activity is a magnetic triggered geological activity related to the Sun. The earthquake magnitude, frequency and occurrence period are directly proportional to solar wind Magneto Hydro Dynamic changes. It is also suggested that the only possible of understanding the cause of Earthquake is by monitoring Astronomical activities, particularly the Sun. The high accuracy arrival time modelling of Earthquake is needed to do the analysis. The study has derived a solar wind interaction model for ICME arrival time and speed. The model is based on CME initial speed observed from LASCO coronagraph observation (V) in km/s. The study used two different distance locations (S1 and S2) for calculation. Let V1 is the CME speed at the distance S1. The distance S2 is nothing but 1 AU distance and its model ICME speed will be V2. Using CME propagation in solar wind drag interaction as a function of elastic coefficient e, the arrival time model of ICME is given by:
Arrival time of ICME = 2S1 / V(1+e1) + 2S2 / V1(1+e2)
(1)
The elastic coefficient change (Sun to S1 distance) (e1) = a V-b
(2)
CME Speed at S1 distance (V1) = e1 V
(3)
The interplanetary elastic coefficient change (e2) = c V1-d
(4)
The ICME Speed at S2 distance (V1) = e2 V1
(5)
The coefficients a, b, c and d are arbitrary coefficients. The web link of the ICME model for public usage is given in the link: https://icme.hkrhc.ac.in/
By using the above model, the ICME arrival time and speed is estimated as ICME arrival time = 38.75 hours and ICME speed = 687 km/s. By comparing a large set of LASCO CMEs and Earth arrived ICMEs, the model is with arrival time error below plus or minus 5 hours. The model is suitable for only the CME speeds >400 km/s. However, any pre CME or CIR shocks, the arrival model is giving large error. This is one of the limitation of the model.
Figure: The June month Earthquake calendar for the year 2024 based on our Solar Earthquake model. It suggests that higher probability of an Extreme Earthquake is possible in the month end.
By analyzing 900 Earthquake events during 1957 to 2024, the study finds about 900 events are earthquake events with magnitude >7 M. By studying solar cycle 23, 24 and 25 events, Geomagnetic storm activities during the same period, the model finds the relation between Earthquake and CME speed as well as arrival time predictions. Based on this, the study finds the recent Geomagnetic storm activity with magnitude = -440 nT is due to a fast and wide CME event with speed = ~2100 km/s. Present study finds that there will be an extreme Earthquake activity during 27 June 2024 to 2 July 2024 with magnitude about ~8.5 M. It is also possible of a Tsunami due to that Earthquake. The study has given an Earthquake prediction calendar for June month. The earthquake magnitude prediction is with error = -1 M. The Earthquake arrival time prediction is with error about plus or minus 10 days.
Acknowledgement
We thank US Geological Survey, Kyoto Geomagnetism (Japan), SOHO/LASCO and GOES team for their open data policy for providing Earthquake, Geomagnetic storm indices, Coronal Mass Ejection and Soft X-ray flare data, respectively. We thank SCOSTEP for conducting space weather orientations in developing and under developing countries.